Evan Roeschen, Senior
In modern times, the idea of full-scale revolution in a civilized nation like France is unthinkable, right? You would be dead wrong in that assumption. At the end of April, over 100 army officials and 20 retired French generals issued a dark and ominous warning to French leader Emmanuel Macron, calling attention to the increase in racial tension across the nation and the fears of an Islamic takeover of the country. During the 2010s, more backlash towards open border policies of allowing illegal immigrants to flood in from North Africa and the Middle East became a common occurrence across France. However, the disagreement, regardless of its controversy, always remained a war of words, until now with the threat of an actual civil war imminent. In the letter, retired generals firmly stated civil war was inevitable if firmer and harsher action was not taken by President Macron to stop the “disintegration” of France. “Without firm action, the populace will rise up in anger and make the change themselves is the fear”. The letter also suggested many of the armed forces are ready to heed the call to arms to defend their country from what they are seeing as the destruction of the nation's beauty. “Even in retirement, we remain soldiers of France and cannot under present circumstances remain indifferent to the fate of our country”.
More concerns have been raised over ISIS linked terror attacks across the country, sparking fears of the nation's breakdown of secular ideas and traditions. President Macron called this letter an outrage, comparing it to the failed coup against Charles de Gaulle 60 years ago. This letter of condemnation against Macron from many in the armed service has become a rallying cry for his political opponent, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally. Le Pen lost the national election in 2017 to Macron for president, however, her influence in the country remains strong, and her party managed to win the European Parliament Elections in 2015 and 2019. She pushed forward the generals' letter, encouraging citizens to “join the battle” against the deteriorating French government. The Covid-19 pandemic turned the nation's attention towards combating the virus, until the October beheading of teacher Samuel Paty sparked national outrage against Macron’s government, reigniting the immigration debate. Never before in modern history has there been such a massive military backlash in such an established nation.
Despite the immense build-up of tensions, this is not the first crack to show in France’s fragile political climate. From September 2017 to early 2019, the Yellow Vest Uprising sparked nationwide riots, protests, and political upheaval against France's ruling elite over the increased taxes and Macron’s radical environmentalist policies. This French-originated protest sparked protests across the world in Spain, the UK, Canada and Taiwan. On the 3rd of May, a Harris Interactive Poll found that nearly 60% of respondents supported the military statements that a civil war is fast approaching if Macron does not take action immediately. The poll of over 1,600 French citizens saw division over whether the army should actually intervene in the matter, with 49% supporting a military take over without consent from the government. 73% agreed with the general’s statements that the nation was disintegrating, showing a massive public upheaval against the president and policies they themselves elected back in 2017. 84% agreed violence in France was drastically increasing. Anger towards the letter was scarce, having only 1 in 3 respondents agreeing that those who signed the warning letter should face punishment.
The next presidential election in France is not scheduled until May 2022. However, given the years of rising turmoil across the nation, as well as the fierce criticism of the Macron government as tyrannical and out of touch with the people, it may be a matter of time before something drastic happens. It is possible that all of this will blow over and nothing will happen. It’s possible the military will act upon their threats and storm Paris to take power. Macron may lash out fearing his presidency is under attack, which may cause a similar incident to what happened in Syria in 2011, with police firing on protestors which sparked the Syrian Civil War. There is even a small chance of this spiraling out of control and causing a ripple effect across Europe, resulting in nations sending in troops to put down the rebellion, meaning given the high tensions in France, there has never been a greater chance of a Second French Revolution than right now. Throughout history, populations can only be pushed so far before they rise up and lash out against the government. France may not be a monarchy anymore, but this does not stop tyranny and injustice from inspiring the age-old desire of revolution and war.
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