Evan Roeschen, Senior
Italy is one of history’s oldest nations. Rich with culture and history that was forged in conquest and bloodshed, and 2021 is no different. However, rather than clash sword to sword or gun to gun, a new form of war is being waged in Italy: a political revolution. As common as it is to form ideas, it is just as likely that you will see a counter reaction to oppose this flow of ideas. May they be good or bad, human conflict and confrontation is as natural to us as breathing. In recent years Italy has undergone a period of political upheaval which has opened a gap for a new force to come in an exploit. What exactly is this new power rocking Italy to its core? The answer is very simple: the people are having an awakening. For decades the country had been ruled by center right/center left moderate governments with the same set of policies: pro EU, pro Euro, pro Brussels, pro migration. These sentiments of the seemingly never ending mundane life shattered in 2014 with the Arab Migration Crisis. By 2015 the EU reported over 1.3 million migrants from North Africa and the Middle East.
As the years went on and more nations began closing and restricting border crossings for anyone without identification, the Balkans faced the brunt of the “migrant invasion”, particularly in Bosnia in 2019 who faced more than 29,000 migrants crossing the border, which resulted in border security being amped up. Now picture Italy from 2015-2017 getting a flux of over 400,000 new citizens suddenly out of the blue. This massive influx of migrants, mainly from Libya pouring into Italy, resulted in a nationwide backlash against the center left government headed by then Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. This unprecedented event, which the Italian government was in favor of continuing, sparked rage and fury in Italian citizens, mainly in the south nearly Sicily and in the north near Verona, where a secession party calling for an independent Venician state had already been at odds with the federal government. The quickly growing division resulted in a power gap fueled by hatred and the feeling of betrayal by the government in Rome. Enter Mateo Salvini, leader of the Lega party, the former forerunner for Venician succession. After a failed referendum for secession in 2014, Salvini started looking inwards for support for his party. The need for a new face to give the people a voice was higher than ever, and in 2018 for Italy's snap elections the people's ferocity was on full display, as the mainstream parties suffered heavy losses. The ruling center left Democratic Party dropping 6% and Forza Italia the center right party dropped nearly 8% with the big winners being the antiestablishment parties: the socialist Fire Star who became the biggest party in the parliament and Lega who had the biggest party surge rising 13% nationwide, as reported by The Guardian.
Fast forward to September 2019, the coalition between Five Star and Lega ends overnight after Five Star kicks Lega out of their coalition and aligns with the Democratic Party, forming a new ruling coalition. This move came after the establishment feared that Salvini would go from Deputy Prime Minister to Prime Minister, take control of the country, and implement his populist agenda. Mateo Renzi left the Democrats to form his own party: Italia Viva. This revenge against the rising populist forces in Italy only prolonged the inevitable, as now current Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte stepped down on Tuesday, February 2nd, causing the coalition of Five Star and the Democrats to collapse. This revelation has caused a scramble to form a ruling coalition. Unlike in the US, in Italy parties need a total of 50% in the Chamber of Deputies to rule the government, and the ruling parties select the prime minister. This fact is becoming increasingly apparent as the leftists and center right parties are becoming panicked beyond belief. This is the opportunity for Salvini to get his revenge after being forced out in 2019. If a new ruling coalition cannot be formed by early February, snap elections will be forced onto the Italian populace and the nationalists are poised to sweep the country in an utter firestorm. As it stands now, Forza Italia, Brothers Of Italy, and Lega combined have over 50.4% of national support, meaning if snap elections are called, the government in Rome for the first time in the country's history will be fully under a nationalist Populist government.
Following the ousting of Salvini as Deputy Prime Minister and Lega from the government, the leftists, led by Luigi Di Miao, reversed their policies on closing oceanic ports to allow North African migrants to flow back into the country. The failure to handle migration, secure the border, and decades of center moderate politicians siding with Brussels, pushed the Italians to the nationalists; now there is an even stronger force pushing people over the edge to abandon the ruling parties, which is Covid-19. Covid-19 did way more than spark a global pandemic, and instead laid the groundwork for political chaos in a continent already plagued by years of a power struggle between the EU and nationalists who have openly opposed their rule. What Covid did was achieve one of the biggest struggles for Populists in Europe: Forcing nations to close their borders. To stop the spread of the virus and furthermore migrants moving country to country spreading the infection, advocates for open border figures such as Macron of France and Merkel of Germany, were forced to close their borders for the first time, achieving one of the great struggles for the European Populists: border control. With this problem solved, the problem of shutdowns remains. Under Prime Minister Conte, 400,000 jobs vanished during 2020, causing a repeat of 2018 due to government failure to solve a national crisis. The people responded the only way they knew how, by throwing their support behind the only people in the country, “as the BBC reports”, who would listen which resulted in their surge in polls. On January 14, the leader of The Brothers Of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Conte, and he caved to these demands. She directly addressed the government's failures, stating, “Italians on their knees, the government in disarray. Italy cannot afford to waste any more time. Conte must resign. Elections now.” While no elections have been announced as of yet, regardless if a new ruling coalition is formed, the Italian leftists are grasping at straws to stay in power as 2019 showed, forcing their competition out of the government ultimately backfired and turned the people against them, not winning them back like they intended. Another weak and frail coalition will result in another collapse and another prime minister resigning. Italy has gone through, as of right now, 65 national governments in only 75 years, proving how fragile the balance of power is in the country. Italy is indeed a powder keg, and it is set to blow during February.
Sources:
Comments